Israel’s Strategic Challenges…

The Israeli Crisis is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

“Israel now finds itself in a long-term crisis in which it is struggling to develop a strategy and foreign policy to deal with a new reality.”

“How to preserve its superiority in the context of the emerging strategic reality is the core of the Israeli crisis.”

“The most important of Israel’s neighbors, Egypt, is now moving on an uncertain course.”

“Morsi has been supportive of security measures taken by the military against militant Islamists, as was seen in the past week’s operations in the Sinai Peninsula.”

“These additional military forces might not threaten Israel immediately, but setting a precedent for a greater Egyptian military presence in the Sinai Peninsula could eventually lead to a threat.”

“Just as dangerous to Israel would be the Lebanonization of Syria.”

“And while Lebanon itself has been reasonably stable in recent years, when Syria catches a cold, Lebanon gets pneumonia. Israel thus faces the prospect of declining security to its north.”

“…ultimately Israel’s national security — particularly if its strategic environment deteriorates — rests on the United States.”

“Where Israel originally had an interest in seeing al Assad survive, the United States did not…While the United States was delighted to see Iran face a reversal in Syria, Israel was much more ambivalent about that outcome.”

“The Israelis are always opposed to the rising regional force.”

“…Israel must potentially oppose all tendencies, where the United States can back one. That leaves Israeli policy incoherent.”

“Since it lacks the power to impose a reality, it winds up in a strategic lockdown.”

“While Israeli policy has historically focused on the main threat, using the balance of power to stabilize the situation and ultimately on the decisive use of military force, it is no longer possible to identify the main threat.”

“Against the backdrop, any serious negotiations with the Palestinians are impossible.”

“The crisis the Israelis face is that their levers of power, the open and covert relationships they had, and their military force are not up to the task of effectively shaping their immediate environment. They have lost the strategic initiative, and the type of power they possess will not prove decisive in dealing with their strategic issues. They no longer are operating at the extremes of power, but in a complex sphere not amenable to military solutions.”

“This is Israel’s crisis. It is not a sudden, life-threatening problem but instead is the product of unraveling regional strategies, a lack of confidence earned through failure and a political system incapable of unity on any particular course.”

About The Jade(d) Warrior

Decades of walking the path of the warrior in service to noble ideals leaves one, well...jaded.
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